Who is Next to Move?
Fresh off the heels of the November 16th announcement that Major League Baseball (MLB) approved the Oakland Athletics move to Las Vegas, the sport business website, Front Office Sports, posted on X – who is next? This blog post uses three variables to predict which team may be at risk of moving in MLB, the National Basketball Association (NBA), the National Football League (NFL), and the National Hockey League (NHL).
Results
Teams with higher scores are more at risk of moving than teams with lower scores,
based on my methodology. The teams that scored the highest in each league include
the Oakland A’s (MLB), the Minnesota Timberwolves (NBA), the Detroit Lions (NFL), and the San Jose Sharks (NHL). Other than perhaps the
Lions, the results were not surprising, especially when considering the top three
teams in each league. Oakland is already on the move and Tampa Bay (MLB) was just
granted a new stadium in St. Petersburg, Florida. Indiana (NBA) just completed major
renovations of Gainbridge Fieldhouse, including the building of a new performance
center, to keep the Pacers in Indianapolis. Chicago (NFL) is likely moving out of
Soldier Field to the Chicago suburbs and Buffalo (NFL) will also get a new stadium
in the coming years. Time will tell how long San Jose and Anaheim (NHL) will stay
in their respective cities until they have new arenas built or receive significant
renovations to their home facilities. Especially considering their neighboring teams
in the NBA, the Warriors and Clippers, have had new areas built within the past few
years. 
|
Rankings (Stadium by age) |
||||
|
MLB Team |
2023 Attendance |
2022 Revenue |
Stadium Age |
Total |
|
Oakland |
30 |
30 |
15 |
75 |
|
Kansas City |
28 |
25 |
14 |
67 |
|
Tampa Bay |
27 |
28 |
8 |
63 |
|
Miami |
29 |
29 |
0 |
58 |
|
Chi White Sox |
24 |
20 |
12 |
56 |
|
Baltimore |
21 |
23 |
11 |
55 |
|
Detroit |
25 |
26 |
4 |
55 |
|
Cleveland |
22 |
21 |
10 |
53 |
|
Pittsburgh |
26 |
24 |
1 |
51 |
|
Arizona |
20 |
19 |
7 |
46 |
|
Cincinnati |
18 |
27 |
0 |
45 |
|
Colorado |
14 |
18 |
9 |
41 |
|
Minnesota |
19 |
22 |
0 |
41 |
|
LA Angels |
13 |
10 |
16 |
39 |
|
Toronto |
8 |
17 |
13 |
38 |
|
Washington |
23 |
14 |
0 |
37 |
|
Boston |
12 |
3 |
19 |
34 |
|
Milwaukee |
15 |
16 |
2 |
33 |
|
Chi Cubs |
9 |
4 |
18 |
31 |
|
Seattle |
10 |
12 |
6 |
28 |
|
Texas |
16 |
11 |
0 |
27 |
|
San Francisco |
17 |
6 |
3 |
26 |
|
LA Dodgers |
1 |
2 |
17 |
20 |
|
NY Mets |
11 |
9 |
0 |
20 |
|
Houston |
7 |
7 |
5 |
19 |
|
San Diego |
3 |
15 |
0 |
18 |
|
St. Louis |
4 |
13 |
0 |
17 |
|
Philadelphia |
6 |
8 |
0 |
14 |
|
Atlanta |
5 |
5 |
0 |
10 |
|
NY Yankees |
2 |
1 |
0 |
3 |
|
Rankings (Stadium by age) |
||||
|
NBA Team |
2022-23 Attendance |
2022-23 Revenue |
Stadium Age |
Total |
|
Minnesota |
27 |
29 |
22 |
78 |
|
Indiana |
29 |
26 |
10 |
65 |
|
New Orleans |
26 |
27 |
7 |
60 |
|
Oklahoma City |
30 |
25 |
3 |
58 |
|
Utah |
13 |
22 |
21 |
56 |
|
Phoenix |
24 |
12 |
20 |
56 |
|
Memphis |
22 |
30 |
1 |
53 |
|
Washington |
21 |
17 |
14 |
52 |
|
Portland |
10 |
20 |
17 |
47 |
|
San Antonio |
25 |
18 |
4 |
47 |
|
Charlotte |
23 |
24 |
0 |
47 |
|
Orlando |
15 |
28 |
0 |
43 |
|
Sacramento |
20 |
21 |
0 |
41 |
|
Atlanta |
18 |
16 |
6 |
40 |
|
Cleveland |
6 |
14 |
19 |
39 |
|
Houston |
28 |
7 |
2 |
37 |
|
LA Clippers |
17 |
6 |
12 |
35 |
|
Detroit |
12 |
23 |
0 |
35 |
|
Denver |
8 |
13 |
13 |
34 |
|
Milwaukee |
19 |
15 |
0 |
34 |
|
NY Knicks |
7 |
3 |
23 |
33 |
|
Toronto |
4 |
19 |
8 |
31 |
|
Boston |
9 |
4 |
16 |
29 |
|
Chicago |
1 |
8 |
18 |
27 |
|
Brooklyn |
16 |
11 |
0 |
27 |
|
Philadelphia |
2 |
9 |
15 |
26 |
|
LA Lakers |
11 |
2 |
11 |
24 |
|
Miami |
5 |
10 |
9 |
24 |
|
Golden State |
14 |
1 |
0 |
15 |
|
Dallas |
3 |
5 |
5 |
13 |
|
Rankings (Stadium by age) |
||||
|
NBA Team |
2022 Attendance |
2022 Revenue |
Stadium Age |
Total |
|
Detroit |
29 |
32 |
4 |
65 |
|
Chicago |
31 |
13 |
20 |
64 |
|
Buffalo |
18 |
29 |
17 |
64 |
|
Jacksonville |
22 |
27 |
14 |
63 |
|
Cincinnati |
24 |
31 |
7 |
62 |
|
Washington |
32 |
16 |
12 |
60 |
|
Arizona |
28 |
30 |
0 |
58 |
|
New Orleans |
15 |
23 |
16 |
54 |
|
Tennessee |
17 |
28 |
8 |
53 |
|
Miami |
25 |
8 |
15 |
48 |
|
Tampa Bay |
14 |
24 |
10 |
48 |
|
Carolina |
9 |
25 |
13 |
47 |
|
Cleveland |
20 |
18 |
9 |
47 |
|
Kansas City |
6 |
22 |
18 |
46 |
|
Pittsburgh |
23 |
15 |
5 |
43 |
|
Minnesota |
21 |
21 |
0 |
42 |
|
Baltimore |
10 |
20 |
11 |
41 |
|
LA Chargers |
11 |
26 |
0 |
37 |
|
Green Bay |
4 |
10 |
19 |
33 |
|
Seattle |
16 |
14 |
3 |
33 |
|
New England |
26 |
4 |
2 |
32 |
|
Atlanta |
13 |
19 |
0 |
32 |
|
Las Vegas |
30 |
2 |
0 |
32 |
|
Houston |
19 |
7 |
1 |
27 |
|
Denver |
5 |
11 |
6 |
22 |
|
Philadelphia |
12 |
9 |
0 |
21 |
|
Indianapolis |
2 |
17 |
0 |
19 |
|
NY Jets |
2 |
12 |
0 |
14 |
|
San Francisco |
8 |
6 |
0 |
14 |
|
LA Rams |
7 |
3 |
0 |
10 |
|
NY Giants |
3 |
5 |
0 |
8 |
|
Dallas |
1 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
|
Rankings (Stadium by age) |
||||
|
NBA Team |
2022-23 Attendance |
2021-22 Revenue |
Stadium Age |
Total |
|
San Jose |
31 |
27 |
20 |
78 |
|
Anaheim |
29 |
25 |
21 |
75 |
|
Buffalo |
27 |
30 |
11 |
68 |
|
Florida |
26 |
31 |
8 |
65 |
|
Arizona |
32 |
32 |
0 |
64 |
|
Ottawa |
25 |
26 |
12 |
63 |
|
Winnipeg |
30 |
28 |
0 |
58 |
|
Calgary |
14 |
21 |
22 |
57 |
|
Columbus |
24 |
29 |
3 |
56 |
|
Seattle |
21 |
10 |
24 |
55 |
|
Nashville |
19 |
23 |
13 |
55 |
|
St. Louis |
11 |
19 |
19 |
49 |
|
Chicago |
20 |
6 |
18 |
44 |
|
NY Islanders |
23 |
18 |
0 |
41 |
|
Philadelphia |
18 |
12 |
10 |
40 |
|
Colorado |
13 |
20 |
7 |
40 |
|
NY Rangers |
15 |
1 |
23 |
39 |
|
New Jersey |
28 |
11 |
0 |
39 |
|
Vancouver |
6 |
14 |
17 |
37 |
|
Tampa Bay |
3 |
15 |
15 |
33 |
|
Pittsburgh |
17 |
16 |
0 |
33 |
|
Boston |
9 |
7 |
16 |
32 |
|
Minnesota |
8 |
22 |
2 |
32 |
|
Carolina |
2 |
24 |
5 |
31 |
|
Los Angeles |
22 |
2 |
6 |
30 |
|
Dallas |
10 |
17 |
1 |
28 |
|
Washington |
7 |
9 |
9 |
25 |
|
Edmonton |
16 |
5 |
0 |
21 |
|
Vegas |
12 |
8 |
0 |
20 |
|
Montreal |
1 |
4 |
14 |
19 |
|
Detroit |
4 |
13 |
0 |
17 |
|
Toronto |
5 |
3 |
4 |
12 |
Methodology
Using the most recent season’s data available, each team was ranked according to their average home attendance and that year’s revenue. Each team was then given a value based on their ranking. For example, the San Jose Sharks ranked 31st in attendance so their attendance ‘value’ was 31. The same method was used for revenue. For teams with an arena or stadium over 20 years old, they were given an additional value based on their venue’s age. For example, there are 19 stadiums in MLB that are older than 20 years old with Boston’s Fenway Park the oldest and Pittsburgh’s PNC Park the “youngest”. Boston was given a value of 19 and Pittsburgh a value of 1. Arenas and stadium 20 years old or younger were given a value of 0. The three variables – attendance, revenue, and stadium age – were then totaled and the teams ranked from largest sum to lowest. The teams with the largest sums are more likely to move.
Limitations
In interest of time, only one year of data was used, so a range of seasons would produce strong data indicating a possible move. Attendance, Revenue, and Stadium Age were three common factors found in literature that precipitates a team moving, but the decision to move a team may also include various other factors not examined here. Finally, due to time constraints, the calculations are simplistic and not acceptable for scholarly research.